To take your ideas to Policymakers, Join the Campaign of #PolicyPulse Write to

President Prediction: Trump is headed for win

Professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes said Trump likely to win

Policy Pulse
Publish Date: Sep 24 2016 12:30PM | Updated Date: Sep 24 2016 3:07PM

President Prediction: Trump is headed for win

Allan Lichtman a professor of history at American University created 13 Keys to the White House more than 30 years ago. He never went wrong about his prediction and he's ready to predict who will win in 2016.


Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 bets Donald Trump victory this year. He says, “Donald Trump is the favorite to win.”


Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.


The keys, which are explained in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” includes various factors such as party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short and long term economy etc.


Other factors that work as deciding factors for the election victory include policy change, social unrest, scandal/s, foreign/military failures and successes, incumbent and challenger’s charisma.


Lichtman said who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet in the 30 years.


Predictions are not endorsements and my prediction is based off a scientific system. It does not necessarily represent, myself or American University endorsement of any candidate.