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Exit polls: BJP set to storm Assam, Mamata in West Bengal

Assembly polls in four in four states and an Union Territory came close on Monday

Policy Pulse
Publish Date: May 17 2016 12:34PM | Updated Date: May 17 2016 12:34PM

Exit polls: BJP set to storm Assam, Mamata in West Bengal

 As Assembly polls in four in four states and an Union Territory came close on Monday, exit polls predicted an anti-incumbent mood in three other states except West Bengal.

 
All polls forecast a BJP win in Assam, raising party hopes of its first government in the state when votes are counted May 19.
 
Congress, which has been in power in Assam for last 15 years, may also be voted out from Kerala with exit polls predicting return of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front in the state.
 
However, the party can draw solace from its projected victory, in alliance with the DMK, in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. 
 
Exit polls suggested that the AIADMK is unlikely to break the anti-incumbency jinx in the state where ruling parties are being regularly voted out since 1991.
 
According to ABP-Nielsen, News X-Chanakya and India Today-Axis, BJP will set to clear the half-way mark of 64 in Assam, with 81 seats, 90 seats and 79-93 seats, respectively.
 
However, India TV-C Voter predicted a hung assembly with a range of 53-61 seats for the BJP. 
 
For the BJP, a government formation  in Assam would silence growing scepticism about PM Narendra Modi’s popular appeal and party chief Amit Shah’s image as a master strategist. 
 
If the exit polls are correct, party will need to find a replacement for Sports and Youth Affairs Minister Sarbananda Sonowal who was projected as the chief ministerial candidate there. 
 
Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress  is the only party which is running agains the anti-incumbency wave. It is expected to make an impressive comeback in West Bengal. 
 
As per ABP-Nielsen, News X-Chanakya and India TV-C Voter, aparty is likely to get gave 178 seats, 210 seats and a range of 163-171 seats. 
India Today-Axis survey, too, has also given TMC a clear majority prediction with anything between 233 to 253 seats. 
 
Alliance of the Left and Congress are lagging way behind with 110 seats in the ABP-Nielsen poll, 70 in News X-Chanakya, 112 to 128 seats in India TV-C Voter and 38 to 51 seats, as per India Today-Axis exit polls. The half-way mark in West Bengal is 147. 
 
Of all states, contest appears to be the closest in Tamil Nadu, according to the exit polls. 
 
India TV-C Voter is the only poll that predicts AIADMK’s return to power with anything between 135 and 143 seats. 
 
The DMK would get between 74 and 82 seats, according to this survey. 
 
The remaining two polls, India Today-Axis and News X-Today’s Chanakya, gave a majority to DMK in the range of 124 to 140 seats and 140 seats, respectively. 
 
Half-way mark in the state is 118. 
 
In Kerala, the India TV poll suggested LDF getting 74 to 82 against UDF’s 54 to 62. India Today-Axis polls gave 88 to 101 seats to the LDF, and 38 to 48 to UDF. The half-way mark in Kerala Assembly is 71.